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The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi meeting the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mr. Nawaz Sharif, on the sidelines of the SCO Summit, in Ufa, Russia on July 10, 2015.
India projected to grow at 7.5% for 2015 and 2016 : IMF

According to IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO), global growth projection in 2015 is projected to be marginally lower than in 2014, with a gradual pickup in advanced economies and a slowdown in emerging market and developing economies. However the global growth is expected to strengthen in 2016.


The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its recent publication of World Economic Outlook (WEO), July 2015, has projected India to grow at 7.5% in 2015 and 2016, thereby leading the growth charts. Amongst BRICS economies, China is projected to grow at 6.8% in 2015 and 6.3% in 2016, followed by South Africa with growth rates projected at 2% in 2015 and 2.1% in 2016. Brazil is projected to grow at (-)1.5% in 2015 and 0.7% in 2016, and Russia at (-)3.4% in 2015 and 0.2% in 2016.

The global growth is projected at 3.3% in 2015 and 3.8% in 2016. The growth projection reflect to an important extent an unexpected output contraction in the US , with attendant spillovers to Canada and Mexico . One-off factors, notably harsh winter weather and port closures, as well as a strong downsizing of capital expenditure in the oil sector contributed to weakening U.S. activity. Outside North America , positive and negative surprises were roughly offsetting. Growth in output and domestic demand in emerging market and developing economies broadly weakened, as expected.

World economy so far
 GDP (World Output)
Y-O-Y Growth (%) 2014
Y-O-Y Growth (%)
Projections1
2015
2016
World2
3.3
3.3
3.8
Advanced Economies
1.8
2.1
2.4
USA
2.4
2.5
3
Euro Area3
0.8
1.5
1.7
Japan
-0.1
0.8
1.2
United Kingdom
2.9
2.4
2.2
Emerging and developing Economies4
4.6
4.2
4.7
Russia
0.6
-3.4
0.2
China
7.4
6.8
6.3
India5
7.3
7.5
7.5
Brazil
0.1
-1.5
0.7
South Africa
1.5
2
2.1
World Trade Volume
3.2
4.1
4.4
Consumer Prices
Advance Economies
1.4
0
1.2
Emerging Economies6
5.1
5.5
4.8
Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from IMF
Note: (1) Difference based on rounded figures for both the current and April 2015 WEO Update forecasts. (2) The quarterly estimates and projections account for 90 percent of the world purchasing-power-parity weights. (3) Excludes Lithuania , which joined the euro area in January 2015. (4) The quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 80 percent of the emerging market and developing economies (5) For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and GDP from 2011 onward is based on GDP at market prices with FY2011/12 as a base year





Advanced Economies
In advanced economies have been projected to grow at 2.1% in 2015 and 2.4% in 2016. Amongst advanced economies, growth is being led by Spain at 3.1% in 2015, followed by U.S. at 2.5% in 2015. The unexpected weakness in North America , which accounts for the lion’s share of the growth forecast revision in advanced economies, is likely to prove a temporary setback. The underlying drivers for acceleration in consumption and investment in the US , wage growth, labor market conditions, easy financial conditions, lower fuel prices, and a strengthening housing market, remain  intact. The economic recovery in the euro area seems broadly on track, with a generally robust recovery in domestic demand and inflation beginning to increase. In Japan , growth in the first quarter of 2015 was stronger than expected, supported by a pickup in capital investment, however, consumption remains sluggish.

Emerging markets and developing economies
In emerging markets and developing economies are projected to grow at better growth rates of 4.2% in 2015 and 4.7% in 2016. In case of emerging markets and developing economies, growth is being led by India at 7.5%. The slowdown reflects the dampening impact of lower commodity prices and tighter external financial conditions—particularly in Latin America and oil exporters, the rebalancing in China , and structural bottlenecks, as well as economic distress related to geopolitical factors—particularly in the Commonwealth of Independent States and some countries in the Middle East and North Africa . In 2016, growth in the region is expected to pick up, largely on account of the projected improvement in economic conditions in a number of distressed economies, including Russia and some economies in the Middle East and North Africa .

Risks to outlook
The distribution of risks to global economic activity is still tilted to the downside. Near-term risks include increased financial market volatility and disruptive asset price shifts, while lower potential output growth remains an important medium-term risk in both advanced and emerging market economies. Lower commodity prices also pose risks to the outlook in low-income developing economies after many years of strong growth.

Policy decisions
At policy front, in many advanced economies, In advanced economies, accommodative monetary policy should continue to support economic activity and lift inflation back to target. Efforts at implementing structural reforms remain urgent across advanced economies, both to tackle crisis legacies and to raise potential output. In emerging market, macroeconomic policy space to support demand is generally more limited but should be used to the extent possible. Structural reforms to raise productivity and remove bottlenecks to production are urgently needed in many economies.

Warm regards,

Dr. S P Sharma
Chief Economist & Director-Research

JAIPUR LITERATURE FESTIVAL ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST-EVER U.S. EVENT

The ZEE Jaipur Literature Festival, the free literary festival, travels to Boulder, Colorado Sept. 18-20 to host their first-ever U.S. event, the Jaipur Literature Festival at Boulder (JLF@Boulder).
JLF@Boulder will feature more than 100 notable writers, thinkers, poets and performers in a three-day edition of what has been declared “the greatest literary show on earth.” There will also be a number of events leading up to the three-day festival.
“We at JLF are looking forward to a stimulating and inspirational edition in beautiful Boulder, Colorado,” said Namita Gokhale, author and co-director of the Jaipur Literature Festival.
Boulder is known for its highly educated, professional population of more than 100,000; for its deep interest and leadership in social, technical and environmental innovation and for fitness and natural health and healing.
Some of the speakers confirmed for the festival include international best-selling author Jung Chang, Pulitzer Prize winning poet Vijay Seshadri, Morroccan-American essayist and novelist Laila Lalami, Israeli journalist, political commentator and author Gideon Levy, Chinese-American best-selling author Anchee Min, and journalist, historian and award-winning author Simon Sebag-Montefiore. The updated list of speakers for JLF@Boulder can be viewed here.
“Boulder is a long way from Jaipur, and we are proud to erect our literary ‘Big Top’ in town and to bring the energy, sparkle and brilliance of Indian writing to a very different world,” said William Dalrymple, author and co-director of the Jaipur Literature Festival.
The program for JLF@Boulder will consist of interviews and panel discussions, along with audience Q&A, addressing timely themes of local and international importance each led by two to four authors. Themes will cover diverse subjects including migration; politics and conflict; environmental concerns like fracking, famine and water conservation; the poetic imagination and Native American voices.
JLF@Boulder will include a focus on Native American, Latino, African American, Asian American and regional literature. The festival will bring together Indian-American, Asian and Latin American authors to explore a variety of literary topics and themes of local and international interest.
The Festival will be held Sept. 18-20 at the Boulder Public Library and Civic Lawns (1001 Arapahoe Ave, Boulder, CO). A week of lead-up activities is also scheduled at the Boulder Public Library, the University of Colorado at Boulder, Naropa University, the Denver Public Library, the Denver Art Museum and other venues. For more information, please visit: http://jaipurliteraturefestival.org/boulder.
Founded in 2008, the ZEE Jaipur Literature Festival is co-directed by authors Namita Gokhale and William Dalrymple, and is produced by Sanjoy Roy and Teamwork Arts, a pioneer in the performing arts space.

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