FY13 GDP grows at 5%

 (The real GDP growth stands at 4.8% in Q4 of 2012-13 as against 4.7% in Q3 of 2012-13)

Economic growth may rebound contingent on improved governance and concerted actions to tackle supply side bottlenecks, enhanced public investments and fiscal consolidation measures. There is urgency for addressing bottlenecks in coal, power, road and telecommunication sectors to revive investment scenario in the economy.  

India’s real GDP growth declined from 6.2% in 2011-12 to 5% in 2012-13.  The GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 55,05, 437 crore as against Rs. 52, 43,582 crore in 2011-12. Whereas, the GDP at factor cost at current prices in the year 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 94,61,013 crore, showing a growth rate of 13.3% over the  GDP for the year 2011-12 at Rs. 83,53 ,495 crore.

Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices for Q4 of 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 14, 70,782 crore with growth rate of 4.8% as against 4.7% in Q3 of 2012-13, 5.2% in Q2 of 2012-13 and 5.4% in Q1 of 2012-13.

Trend in growth of India’s real GDP                                                                                             (%)

Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from CSO

The estimated growth rates in economic activities in Q4 of 2012-13 over Q4 of 2011-12 are financing, insurance, real estate and business services at 9.1%, construction at 4.4%, community, social & personal services at 4%, trade, hotels, transport and communication at 6.2% and electricity, gas & water supply at 2.8%. The growth rate in agriculture, forestry & fishing, is estimated at 1.4% while for mining and quarrying and manufacturing growth is estimated at (-) 3.1% and 2.6%, respectively in this period.

Recent pattern in real GDP growth           

Components of  India’s GDP	Share in GDP*	FY09	FY10	FY11	FY12	AE FY13	PE FY13	Q1 FY13	Q2 FY13	Q3 FY13	Q4 FY13
Agriculture, forestry & fishing	13.68	0.1	0.8	7.9	3.6	1.8	1.9	2.9	1.7	1.8	1.4
Industry (IIP)	18.93	4.01	10	8.5	2.6	1.9	1.1	-0.1	0.5	2.3	2.0
Of which
Mining & quarrying	1.95	2.1	5.9	4.9	(-) 0.6	0.4	-0.6	0.4	1.7	-0.7	-3.1
Manufacturing	15.10	4.3	11.3	9.7	2.7	1.9	1	-1	0.1	2.5	2.6
Electricity, gas & water supply	1.86	4.6	6.2	5.2	6.5	4.9	4.2	6.2	3.2	4.5	2.8
Construction	7.81	5.3	6.7	10.2	5.6	5.9	4.3	7	3.1	2.9	4.4
Services	59.56	9.6	10.1	9.8	8.2	6.6	7.1	7.6	7.6	6.6	6.5
Of which
Trade, hotel, transport & communication	27.82	9	9.7	10.3	7	5.2	6.4	6.1	6.8	6.4	6.2
Financing, insurance, real estate & business services	18.72	12	9.7	10.1	11.7	8.6	8.6	9.3	8.3	7.8	9.1
Community, social & personal services	13.01	12.5	11.7	4.3	6	6.8	6.6	8.9	8.4	5.6	4
Overall real GDP	100	6.7	8.6	9.3	6.2	5	5	5.4	5.2	4.7	4.8

Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from CSO

Note: *Share in GDP is as per provisional estimates of GDP for 2012-13, AE: Advance Estimates, PE: Provisional Estimates

Gross National Income -- The Gross National Income (GNI) at factor cost at 2004-05 prices is estimated at Rs. 54, 49,104 crore during 2012-13 as against the previous year’s first revised estimate of Rs. 51,96,848 crore. In terms of growth rates, the gross national income is estimated to have risen by 4.9% during 2012-13, in comparison to the growth rate of 6.4% in 2011-12.

Per Capita Net National Income -- The per capita net national income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices) during 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 39,168 as compared to the first revised estimates for 2011-12 of Rs. 38,037. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 3% during 2012-13 as against 4.7% during 2011-12.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure -- Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2004-05) prices is estimated at Rs. 34,66,723 crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 33,34,900 crore in 2011-12. At current prices PFCE is estimated at Rs. 56, 94,362crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 50, 56,219 crore in 2011-12. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2012-13 are estimated at 56.8% and 59.6% respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 56.3% and 59.2% respectively in 2011-12.

Government Final Consumption Expenditure -- Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at constant (2004-05) prices is estimated at Rs. 6,59,236 crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 6,34,559 crore in 2011-12. At current prices GFCE is estimated at Rs. 11, 86,761crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 10, 42,677crore in 2011-12. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2012-13 are estimated at 11.8% and 11.3% respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 11.6% and 11.3% respectively in 2011-12.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation -- Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2004-05) prices is estimated at Rs. 19,29,988 crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 18,97,309 crore in 2011-12. At current prices GFCF is estimated at Rs. 29, 64,677crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 27, 49,072 crore in 2011-12. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2012-13 are estimated at 29.6% and 33.2% respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.6% and 33.7% respectively in 2011-12.

The private final consumption expenditure as percentage of GDP at constant market prices stands at 54.7% in Q4 of 2012-13, 61.4% in Q3 of 2012-13, 61.8% in Q2 of 2012-13 and 61.1% in Q1 of 2012-13. The gross fixed capital formation as percentage of GDP at constant market prices stands at 32.6% in Q4 of 2012-13, 32% in Q3 of 2012-13, 34.6% in Q2 of 2012-13 and 33.8% in Q1 of 2012-13.

  Select demand side indicators, as % of GDP                          (at constant market prices)

Item	Q1FY13	Q2FY13	Q3FY13	Q4FY13
Private Final Consumption Expenditure	61.1	61.8	61.4	54.7
Government Final Consumption Expenditure	11.0	11.0	12.1	11.2
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	33.8	34.6	32.0	32.6

 Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from CSO

Warm regards,

Dr. S P Sharma
Chief Economist
________________________________________________

PHD Research Bureau

PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry

August Kranti Marg, New Delhi – 110016

Tel 91 11 49545454, Fax 91 11 26855450,

E mail – research@phdcci.in

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